U.S. EXODUS FROM AFGHANISTAN

The Taliban are overrunning Afghan military outposts, towns, and villages, and major cities as the US prepares to leave by September 11th, after two decades of war, reigniting worries that they might topple the government.  

Afghanistan is on the verge of a new civil war, thanks to the resurgence of armed regional militias to counter the Afghan Taliban onslaught. The Taliban were deposed by US-led forces in Afghanistan in 2001, but the organization has steadily rebuilt strength since then and is once again capturing territory. Many northern districts have been taken over by the Taliban, and some large towns have been besieged. They now have control of the main highways going to Mazar-I-Sharif. Afghan government forces have abandoned their posts in several locations without a struggle. Soldiers have joined the rebels in certain situations. The Taliban have taken control of the major border crossing with Tajikistan, which is an important commercial route.

The Taliban has accused the United States of violating the deal, which required all soldiers to leave by May 1, the start of the final pullout. The Taliban have made some progress, according to US officials, but it's unclear whether they've fulfilled their part of the bargain.

“Us intelligence warns the Ghani administration in Kabul might fall apart in six months after the US leaves.”

Although Afghan President Ashraf Ghani claims that the country's security forces are perfectly capable of holding insurgents at bay, many fear that the departure would return Afghanistan to the Taliban's control. The Afghan government has expanded its dependence on regional militias as a result of the current military loss. The government's increased reliance on the warlords is regarded as a sign of despair. According to a US intelligence study, the Ghani administration in Kabul might fall apart six months after the US leaves. This might exacerbate the power vacuum and lead to the country's disintegration.

What is most concerning is the possibility of the Afghan army disintegrating and trained soldiers joining other fighting organizations. Although President Ghani was guaranteed sustained US financial, political, and moral assistance during his visit to Washington, this may not be enough to preserve Afghanistan from civil conflict. It may be a never-ending conflict with no end in sight.

The number of security events in Afghanistan has recently increased dramatically. Indeed, analysts have predicted that “increased violence” will be one of the most likely outcomes following the evacuation of US soldiers.

Afghans from all political parties voiced worry over growing ethnic divides in society and perceived ethnic prejudice in government appointments. Political leaders realize that they can defeat the Taliban more effectively if they work together.

Given the Taliban's severe rule in enforcing Shariah, they will be required to make their plans public to address the general public's and international community's worries. In this sense, the militia's attitude on women's rights would be critical in deciding how the world community views them. Some Afghans and foreign observers have suggested the creation of an interim administration, claiming that the Taliban's unwillingness to recognize the Afghan government may necessitate such action. Such suggestions have been rejected by President Ghani and other Afghan authorities.

The Taliban will be put to the ultimate test whenever they gain power by force or as part of a reconciliation administration. While they may use intimidation or pressure to limit internal criticism, they must adhere to the international standards and commitments to which Afghanistan has agreed. Otherwise, they are fully aware of the experience, when no country recognized their authority except Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Meanwhile, according to a report by a US-based media organization, Al Qaeda is aiming to expand its operations in the region following the withdrawal of US soldiers from Afghanistan. According to the report, the organization is plotting a return by depending on its long-standing alliance with the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban. All of these trends suggest that once the US forces leave, transnational terrorist organizations will be encouraged to expand their influence and activities.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in an interview with BBC 4 on May 5 that the US will remain active in Afghanistan after the departure by supporting the country. According to state-run media, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has underlined that his nation will not allow the US to conduct counter-terrorism operations following the latter's planned withdrawal from neighboring Afghanistan. 

"Not," says Prime minister Imran Khan We are not going to accept any bases or military activity in Afghanistan from Pakistani land. According to The Associated Press of Pakistan, the prime minister declared in an interview to be broadcast on Sunday, "absolutely not."

The United States has a long history of working with the Pakistani military. Field Marshal Ayyub Khan was the one who originally gave the Americans a facility at Badaber, near Peshawar, in 1959, which they used to spy on the Soviets. According to a statement made earlier this year by the DG ISPR Maj Gen Iftikhar Babar, Pakistan lost 83,000 lives and the war on terror cost the country almost $126 billion.

Pakistan's political and military authorities understand that Afghan instability would lead to insecurity in Pakistan. For example, Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa recently reminded Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on a visit to Kabul that a peaceful Afghanistan implies a peaceful Pakistan.

Pakistan's protests are regarded with a grain of salt, even if they may play a neutral role in the game. President Biden wants Pakistan to "do more" during the US army departure by September 11 because of its involvement in bringing the Taliban to the bargaining table.

The most pressing topic now isn't whether Pakistan should hand up bases to the US; that is highly improbable. The issue is: what has Pakistan lost by not having a consistent Taliban policy? Schoolchildren have been killed, bazaars have been bombed, military personnel has been killed, and budgetary restrictions have increased. Was it worthwhile to invest in this "strategic depth"? 

Pakistan's best option would be to maintain a rigorous vigil along its borders, maintain an equal distance from all Afghan factions, and establish a consensus among Afghanistan's neighbors on full neutrality and the promotion of peace and stability in the war-torn country. The future will tell the rest of the story.